Waiver, Float, and Faster Tracks

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Washington’s Waiver Leaves India’s Oil and Trade Talks Intact

On the evening of 16 October the White House issued an executive order that paused key parts of a law Congress had passed only weeks earlier. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 had given the president authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude and gas. India sits on that list. The order, which the president certified was in the national interest, arrived days before the relevant provisions were due to take effect.

The practical effect is immediate. Indian refiners that had already begun shifting some volumes away from Russian barrels as a precaution now face one less source of sudden cost. Russian crude had accounted for a large share of India’s imports earlier in the year; by August that share had fallen but remained substantial. A 100% tariff layered on top of existing duties would have raised the landed cost of those barrels and complicated the broader negotiations New Delhi is conducting with Washington on a bilateral trade agreement.

The waiver is not a permanent exemption. The statute remains on the books, and the executive order leaves room for the administration to reverse course. Indian officials and industry groups have treated the pause as useful breathing space rather than a settled outcome. The timing is also linked to a separate understanding under which Russia is expected to supply diesel to help ease pressure on global fuel markets. That arrangement has drawn criticism in the United States, yet it has produced the same practical result for India: the most severe new tariff threat has been deferred.

This illustrates how energy security and trade policy remain tightly coupled. India imports the great majority of its crude. Any measure that raises the cost of those imports feeds through to transport, manufacturing, and inflation. At the same time, Indian exporters have been watching the progress of talks with Washington closely; the removal of an overhang of possible punitive tariffs improves the climate for those discussions. The same week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was scheduled to begin a visit to India, providing an early test of whether the waiver translates into smoother official exchanges.

The decision does not resolve longer-term questions about the composition of India’s oil slate or the durability of any US–India commercial understanding. It does, however, remove one near-term obstacle that both sides had identified as capable of derailing progress. In a year already marked by supply disruptions elsewhere, that removal is material.

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Jio Platforms Sets the Price for India’s Largest IPO

Jio Platforms, the digital and telecom arm of Reliance Industries, filed its red-herring prospectus on 14 October and fixed a price band of ₹1,065 to ₹1,119 per share. The offer is a fresh issue of up to 27 crore equity shares. At the top of the band the company expects to raise approximately ₹30,213 crore (approx. US$3.18 billion). That figure would make the listing the largest initial public offering in Indian history, exceeding the previous record set by Hyundai Motor India in 2024.

The issue opens for subscription on 21 October and closes on 23 October. Anchor bidding is scheduled for 19 October; shares are expected to list on 28 October. Of the proceeds, ₹27,500 crore is earmarked for debt repayment, with the balance available for general corporate purposes. Reservations have been set aside for eligible employees of Jio Platforms and for eligible shareholders of the parent company. At the upper end of the price range the implied market capitalisation is roughly ₹10.3 lakh crore.

Jio Platforms operates one of the world’s largest mobile networks. As of March 2026 it reported more than 524 million subscribers, of whom 268 million were on 5G. Global technology investors already hold stakes: Meta Platforms owns just under 10% and Google roughly 7.7%. The listing therefore places a domestically controlled digital infrastructure company, already used daily by hundreds of millions of people, onto public markets at a scale that will attract both domestic retail and international institutional capital.

For investors outside India the offer is a direct exposure to the country’s digital economy rather than a pure telecom multiple. The company has spent years building fibre, towers and spectrum; the IPO converts that sunk investment into a publicly traded equity while leaving the bulk of ownership with the parent. Success or otherwise will be read as a test of whether Indian markets can absorb a primary issuance of this size without excessive dilution or secondary selling by existing foreign shareholders. Early indications from the grey market suggested a premium, but the final verdict will come only after the books close.

The float also marks the first public offering from the Reliance group since 2008. In a year when Indian equity issuance has remained active, the Jio transaction is the clearest single measure of how far the country’s capital markets have moved from the smaller deals of the previous decade.

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September Exports Rise 23% on Electronics and Petroleum

Merchandise exports from India rose 23.04% year-on-year in September to US$44.4 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry on 15 October. Imports increased more slowly, by 8% to US$74.61 billion. The goods trade deficit therefore narrowed to US$30.21 billion from US$33 billion in September 2025. Overall exports, including services, were estimated at US$80.75 billion for the month.

The sector detail is more instructive than the headline. Electronics exports climbed 70.44% to US$5.3 billion. Petroleum products rose 31.9% to US$6.2 billion. Chemicals increased 24.21% to US$3 billion. Engineering goods also contributed. Exports to the United States rose sharply, by roughly 48% in some accounts, even as shipments to parts of West Asia declined amid regional disruption. Gold imports fell steeply, which helped contain the deficit; officials attributed part of the drop to high duties.

On a cumulative basis, April-September merchandise exports reached US$259.89 billion, up 18.51% from the same period a year earlier. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal noted that if the trend held, annual merchandise exports could exceed US$500 billion; they stood at US$442 billion in the previous financial year. Services exports, by contrast, registered a rare dip, linked in part to weaker travel and tourism flows connected to the West Asia situation.

For an international audience the numbers matter because they show where Indian manufacturing and refining capacity is actually expanding. Electronics growth at this pace is consistent with the broader shift toward higher-value assembly and component work. Petroleum product exports benefit from the country’s refining scale when crude prices are elevated. Neither development is new in isolation, but the combination of double-digit overall growth for a second consecutive month, a narrowing deficit, and strong performance in two globally traded categories indicates that export capacity has not been derailed by the year’s supply shocks.

The data do not erase structural issues. Imports from China continued to rise, and the cumulative deficit for the first half of the year remained wider than a year earlier. Still, the September print supplies concrete evidence that Indian exporters in electronics and refined products are finding markets even while negotiations on tariffs and market access continue elsewhere.

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Canada and India Move a Trade Deal Toward a December Close

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke by telephone on 13 October and agreed to work toward concrete outcomes across trade, energy, technology, and security. Both sides reaffirmed the aim of concluding negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement at the earliest opportunity and of doubling two-way trade by 2030. The call coincided with the presence in India of Canada’s foreign minister and trade minister, who led a trade mission of nearly 300 delegates – the largest Canadian commercial delegation to India in more than 30 years.

Five rounds of negotiations have already been completed. Further sessions are expected in the coming weeks. Officials have indicated that the two governments are working toward an announcement around the time of Modi’s planned visit to Canada in December. Merchandise trade has already accelerated: Canadian exports to India rose more than 30% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026, while Indian exports to Canada also posted double-digit growth. In 2025 bilateral goods and services trade stood at roughly CA$30 billion; the stated target is CA$70 billion by 2030.

The engagement is a clear reversal from the low point that followed the 2023 killing of a Canadian citizen and the subsequent diplomatic expulsions. Both capitals have treated the commercial track as separable from residual political differences and have moved with unusual speed once talks resumed. For Canada the agreement offers diversification at a moment when dependence on the United States market is under strain. For India it opens additional access to energy, potash, critical minerals, and aerospace markets while giving Canadian firms a clearer route into a large and growing consumer base.

The week’s events do not guarantee a signed text in December. Outstanding issues remain, and any final package will still require legislative and regulatory steps on both sides. What has changed is the combination of leaders’ public commitment, ministerial presence on the ground, and a large private-sector mission already generating commercial agreements. That combination makes the December target more than a talking point. It is now the working deadline against which both administrations will be measured.

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Chennai Opens the First Operational Stretch of Metro Phase II

On 11 October Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay jointly flagged off the first train on the Poonamallee Bypass-Vadapalani section of Chennai Metro Phase II. The 14.64-kilometre elevated corridor, built at a cost of ₹4,900 crore (approx. US$516 million), has 11 stations and connects the city’s western suburbs to the existing network at Vadapalani. Passenger services began the same afternoon. The trains are designed for unattended operation; full driverless running is expected after further certification, with two operators aboard in the initial period.

The metro inauguration formed part of a larger package. During the same visit the Prime Minister inaugurated and laid foundation stones for projects whose combined value exceeds ₹13,000 crore (approx. US$1.37 billion). These include national-highway sections, railway works, port infrastructure, and a brain-research centre at the Indian Institute of Technology Madras. The metro stretch itself includes a 3.7-kilometre double-decker section, though not all stations on that portion opened immediately.

For residents of the western suburbs the practical change is measurable: travel times to the city centre are expected to fall substantially once the line is fully integrated. For an international observer the event is a reminder that large-scale urban rail continues to be delivered in India’s major cities even while political parties contest credit for earlier stages of the same project. The Phase II network, when complete, will add more than 100 kilometres; the section opened this week is the first operational segment.

The same day the two leaders travelled together on the new line. The political choreography attracted comment, yet the infrastructure itself is straightforward: an elevated corridor, modern signalling, platform screen doors, and a timetable that begins to serve paying passengers. In a country where metro systems have expanded from roughly 250 kilometres in 2014 to more than 1,100 kilometres today, each new operational stretch adds capacity that is used daily by commuters rather than remaining on a planning map.

The opening does not complete Chennai’s metro expansion. Further corridors and interchanges remain under construction, and the state government has already requested central approval for additional phases. What the week demonstrated is that a defined segment of a multi-year project has moved from construction to service, on schedule with the broader package of transport and research works inaugurated alongside it.